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Prediction for CME (2024-10-29T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-29T13:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34277/-1
CME Note: This event is visible for one frame in STEREO A COR2 imagery to the southwest, prior to a data gap from 2024-10-29T13:23Z to 23:23Z. In SOHO LASCO C3 this event is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest, but the CME is only observable for a few frames before it exits the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning about S37W25 to S15W90, likely extending beyond the western limb, which begins to erupt around 2024-10-29T12:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is visible around the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 around 14:15Z, and post eruptive arcades begin to form around 17:15Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-31T19:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-01T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34300/1
Model Inputs:
2024-10-29T13:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=46.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=922.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-10-29T18:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-01T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-01T22:39Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-31T17:15Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-31T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241029_181300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 24.95 hour(s)
Difference: -14.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-10-30T18:31Z

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